As early as the start of the season, Ukrainian producers will be operating under conditions of the largest supply of corn in recent years. At the same time, the key factor for domestic prices will remain the possibility of export through deep-water ports.

This is reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative FUAC (First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

"As of the end of July, approximately almost 5 million tonnes of carryover corn stocks remain in Ukraine. Even if it is possible to export about another 1 million tonnes before the start of the new season, about 4 million tonnes will remain on the domestic market. Under a realistic scenario, the new season's harvest will amount to 34–35 million tonnes, so the total supply may reach 38–39 million tonnes. This will be a record figure since the beginning of the full-scale invasion," the analysts note.

At the same time, the global market is showing quite different dynamics, which could potentially support prices for Ukrainian exporters.

"On the world market, the situation will develop in the opposite direction. In France, the condition of corn crops has been deteriorating for several weeks in a row, and at present only 38% of them are rated as good and very good. Also, in the U.S., a reduction in the harvest of almost 30 million tonnes is expected. Given such factors, corn prices on world markets should be higher than last year," the experts believe.

However, realizing the advantages of the global market conditions will not be easy due to Ukraine's limited export capabilities as a result of the blockade of deep-water ports.

"Even if the Danube ports work exclusively on the transshipment of corn, exporting such a volume would take about 11 months. And this is on the condition that other crops are not shipped at all. If the deep-water ports do not resume operation, calculations show that the price of corn may fall to $140–150 per tonne on a CPT basis, and under an unfavorable development of events — even lower. The market has already experienced a similar situation in 2023: after the stoppage of the grain corridor, the price of corn fell from approximately $180 to $90/t," the analysts recall.

In the experts' opinion, producers who plan to sell corn in October–December should already now consider the possibility of concluding forward contracts.

"If the deep-water ports resume operation, the potential losses from fixing the price in advance may be minimal — only a few dollars per tonne. At the same time, in the event that they remain closed, the decline in prices may lead to losses at the level of $50–70/t. For corn producers, this will be a significant financial risk," FUAC sums up.