The rapeseed harvesting campaign in Ukraine is effectively complete: farmers have already threshed about 3.7–3.8 million tonnes from 99% of the areas. This is the best result since 2022. At the same time, on the domestic market, demand for rapeseed is beginning to exceed supply.

This is reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative FUAC (First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

An important benchmark for the Ukrainian market remains the dynamics of European exchange quotations for rapeseed on Euronext. In recent days, they have been declining after the price reached €550–560 per tonne for several days in a row. The correction was caused by a combination of technical and fundamental factors, in particular new trade disputes between the U.S. and Canada. Despite this, the medium-term prospects of the market remain positive.

"The current exchange correction does not change the general trend on the rapeseed market. The price has returned to the strong range of €520–530 per tonne, where stabilization can be expected in the coming days. After this, a recovery of quotations to €540–550 per tonne is possible," the analyst noted.

The Ukrainian market will also react to global price dynamics.

"Domestic prices are supported by the reduction in supply: there are more buyers, while sellers are in no hurry to enter the market. In September–October, the supply of rapeseed may be sporadic and increase mainly at moments when the growth of exchange quotations stops or corrects. Under current conditions, in September rapeseed may add about $15–20 per tonne. As already mentioned, the world market will likely move upward, and the Ukrainian one will also react to this trend, although — due to the rising cost of logistics — only partially," FUAC explains.

Logistics will become the determining factor for selling rapeseed in the autumn. In October–December, the main burden on logistics will fall on corn exports, which may complicate the transportation of rapeseed. A separate risk remains the Danube direction, where operations are affected by significant cargo volumes and the security situation.

And if producers do not sell the crop in the autumn, then at the beginning of next year the sales conditions may improve even further.

"In the medium and long term, rapeseed retains growth potential. If it is not sold in September–October, then in January–February the price could potentially be higher," the experts believe.