Prices for new-harvest sunflower in Ukraine may decline significantly in the autumn. One of the main factors of pressure on the market remains the limited operation of deep-water ports.

This is reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative FUAC (First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

"Even taking into account the unfavorable weather in the southern regions, Ukraine may harvest at least 11.5–12 million tonnes of sunflower. In the south, due to a shortage of precipitation and high temperatures, yields on some areas may fall to 1.2–1.5 t/ha. At the same time, the expected total production volume will be sufficient to ensure domestic processing with the deep-water ports closed," the analysts note.

The most difficult period for producers may be September–October, when the new harvest will arrive on the market en masse.

"Objectively, prices may start from levels of UAH 19,000–20,000/t. If the weather allows the harvesting campaign to proceed without delays and supply grows actively, prices may fall to UAH 16,000–17,000/t," FUAC forecasts.

At the same time, after the peak of supply has passed, the market has a chance to partially recover the decline. Historical price dynamics under conditions of limited port logistics point to a possible recovery of quotations closer to winter.

"At the beginning of the season, prices will fall by UAH 3,000/t, but after that, by December–January, they may recover to UAH 19,000–20,000/t. If there is currently no opportunity to fix UAH 20,000–21,000/t, it may be worth selling part of the sunflower at the start and waiting until December with the rest. During this period, the market may gradually return to higher price levels," the analysts believe.