The cost of logistics and limited export routes remain the main factors that will shape the situation on the Ukrainian grain market in the coming months. They will determine domestic prices much more than harvest volumes.

This is reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative FUAC (First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

According to the analysts' estimate, wheat trading on the domestic market remains restrained. The Danube direction is partially working, receiving grain from the southern regions, and exports through the Vadul-Siret border crossing to Romania have also picked up. Through this route, wheat is supplied from the Khmelnytskyi, Ternopil, and Chernivtsi regions. At the same time, some deals have already been concluded for the supply of grain to Constanța at conditional prices at the level of $233–234/t with shipment in September.

"The main consumer of Ukrainian wheat in the first half of the season remains the Asian countries — Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. It was precisely there that Ukraine traditionally supplied significant volumes of grain. However, without the operation of the sea ports, access to these markets becomes significantly more difficult, while the Romanian and Bulgarian ports are already loaded with their own harvest, so finding additional capacity will not be easy," FUAC notes.

In the coming weeks, the market will remain under pressure from expensive freight. Despite individual cases of urgent demand for grain, the rise in the cost of transportation will restrain prices.

"In the perspective of one to two weeks, we will most likely see a further decline in wheat prices. On the Danube, prices will dip due to the rising cost of freight. On the land borders, stability is expected for now; however, after grain accumulates, buyers may suspend purchases, which will also create pressure on the market," the analysts forecast.

According to FUAC's data, the cost of renting wagons for October–November is already $40–45/t, but in the autumn it may rise to $60–70/t. Due to the risk of a further rise in the cost of logistics, agricultural companies are actively fixing forward sales, trying to ensure a stable cash flow.

"The new season will be not about where to sell grain, but about where there will even be the possibility of delivering it. It is precisely logistics that will determine the competitiveness of Ukrainian products and the level of domestic prices," the FUAC analytical department summed up.