Ukrainian wheat is being actively exported through the Romanian port of Constanța, which currently remains one of the important sales directions. However, as early as October, the load on logistics will increase substantially due to the intensification of corn supplies, which will strengthen the competition between crops for the available transport capacity.

This was reported by the analysts of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the UAC.

"In July, Ukraine exported about 1 million tonnes of wheat, in August - 600 thousand tonnes, and in September we may again approach 1 million tonnes. Currently, wheat is being actively shipped through Constanța. However, in October, corn will enter the market and will compete with wheat for logistics. Because of this, the pace of wheat exports may decline," FUAC notes.

At the same time, the situation on external markets remains favorable for Ukrainian wheat in terms of demand. However, the final economics of supplies for Ukrainian sellers is largely determined by transport costs.

"A certain imbalance is currently observed on the wheat market: demand exceeds the available supply. Last week, Egypt was buying Ukrainian wheat at conditional prices of around $300–307 per tonne. At the same time, maritime logistics has risen significantly in price. If two weeks ago freight to Egypt cost about $60 per tonne, then at the end of last week it was already about $100–105. That is, the logistics component alone rose by approximately $40 per tonne over two weeks," the analysts report.

According to the analysts' estimates, in the near future the wheat market may remain relatively stable without sharp price fluctuations. At the same time, the high cost of freight and limited logistics capabilities will continue to affect domestic purchase prices. Therefore, even with high demand on external markets, the profitability of sales of Ukrainian wheat will largely depend on the cost of delivery and the chosen sales channel.