The start of the harvest in Ukraine will be accompanied by a certain decline in wheat prices against the backdrop of forecasts of a higher harvest and a seasonal increase in grain supply. At the same time, the limited willingness of farmers to sell wheat at current prices will support the market as early as the second half of July.

This is reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

According to experts' estimates, Ukraine's wheat harvest in 2025 will amount to 23.5–24 million tonnes, which is somewhat higher than last year's figure.

"The harvest is expected to be larger than last year, and the market is already taking the factor of increased production into account. In the coming weeks, prices for milling wheat may decline by about 10 dollars per tonne. If third-class wheat is currently trading at 214–217 $/t CPT-port, then during the active arrival of the new harvest a decline to a level of around 205 $/t is possible," the analysts mentions.

At the same time, the key factor for the market will remain the level of sales activity on the part of producers.

"The cost of wheat production continues to rise, while current price levels provide minimal profitability or even make some sales unprofitable. Therefore, the question of the volumes of new-harvest sales remains open. At present, we do not observe a willingness on the part of farmers to actively sell a significant portion of their wheat immediately after harvesting. Most producers are considering the possibility of postponing sales in anticipation of better market conditions. This may limit supply on the market in the first weeks of the season," the experts believe.

At the same time, export demand for grain is active. For July–August, more than 3 million tonnes of Ukrainian wheat have already been contracted, while forward purchases cover only part of the required volumes.

"In the second half of July, the market may receive additional support from exporters, who will need to ensure the fulfillment of contracts already concluded. After a short period of price pressure, one can expect the market to stabilize and quotations to gradually recover. A benchmark for third-class wheat may become a level of around 220 dollars per tonne CPT-port," the FUAC predicts.