Український ринок ріпаку залишається активним завдяки стабільному попиту з боку Європи. Водночас найближчими тижнями ціни можуть перебувати під тиском через корекцію на європейському ринку.

The Ukrainian rapeseed market remains active thanks to stable demand from Europe. At the same time, in the coming weeks prices may be under pressure due to a correction on the European market.

This is reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative FUAC (First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

A significant part of the export volumes of rapeseed was contracted back in August. After the complication of the operation of deep-water ports, the main direction of shipments became the European market, to which the crop is supplied predominantly by rail.

"Approximately 60–70% of rapeseed exports in August–October will come from supplies by rail wagons. In Europe, there is demand for Ukrainian rapeseed, so this channel remains important for export. For October, according to the available information, about 330 thousand tonnes have been contracted. A significant part of the logistics for these volumes is also secured by contracts. Therefore, no substantial changes in the pace of exports are expected for now," FUAC notes.

On the European Euronext exchange, rapeseed quotations have begun to decline, and over the next two weeks the dip in European quotations may also affect domestic prices in Ukraine.

"The current decline should for now be regarded as a correction. The main trend on the European market remains upward. By December–January, quotations could potentially move in the direction of 600–620 euros/t, and under a favorable scenario — to 640 euros/t. However, over the next two weeks rapeseed may show a dip. Accordingly, the Ukrainian market will also feel a negative price impact," the analysts explain.

On the domestic market, a decline in indicative prices of UAH 100–200/t at plants and of UAH 100–300/t in the direction of the Danube ports has already been recorded. At the western border, demand is holding at the level of 460–465 euros/t; however, sales are being restrained by a shortage of available wagons at an acceptable cost.

At the same time, the significant stocks of rapeseed in Ukraine and the expected strengthening of the European market may support prices at the end of the year.

"If European quotations rise to 600–620 euros/t, Ukrainian prices, which at ports were around 490–500 euros/t, could theoretically rise to 510–520 euros/t. That is, the potential for an upward movement remains quite significant. As of October 1, the stocks of rapeseed in Ukraine may amount to about 2.6–2.7 million tonnes. By December–January, about another 1.5 million tonnes of the crop may remain on the market. Demand and interest in Ukrainian rapeseed will persist," FUAC believes.