Ринок ячменю в Україні переходить до етапу відновлення після нетривалого цінового просідання на старті жнив. Активізація експортних відвантажень на тлі обмеженої пропозиції зерна сприяє підвищенню закупівельних цін, а до кінця липня вони можуть повернутися до рівня близько $200/т.

The barley market in Ukraine is moving into a recovery phase after a short-lived price dip at the start of the harvest. The intensification of export shipments against the backdrop of limited grain supply is contributing to an increase in purchase prices, and by the end of July they may return to a level of around $200/t.

This is reported by the analytical department of the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established within the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC).

"Exports have begun to move actively. In the first half of July, almost 80 thousand tonnes have already been shipped, of which about 67 thousand tonnes made up the consignment of the first vessel to China. By the end of the month, two more vessels are planned for the Chinese direction and several — to Saudi Arabia. If these plans are realized, July exports will reach about 300 thousand tonnes. Such activity by exporters is a key factor supporting prices and creates the potential for their further growth," FUAC notes.

The experts point out that traders may face a shortage of grain to fulfill export contracts. While the first consignments can still be assembled without significant difficulties, covering the required volumes further on will be difficult due to the weak activity of sellers.

Last week, purchase prices for barley already added about $2/t, and this trend, according to FUAC's estimates, will continue. As for the sharp drop in prices at the start of the harvest, this was mainly a psychological reaction of the market.

"As soon as information appeared about the start of the harvest and good yields, the market went sharply down — this situation occurred with both barley and wheat. At the same time, there were no objective reasons for such a decline, since supply actually stopped at the level of $190–195/t, and farmers were in no hurry to sell grain. Now export contracts need to be fulfilled, but the required volumes are not available on the market. Therefore, a gradual recovery in prices can be forecast. By the end of July — beginning of August, they may return to around $200/t," the analysts forecast.

According to FUAC's estimates, the seasonal model allows for growth potential to $205–210/t; however, the more realistic scenario for now remains the market's return to a level of around $200/t by the end of July. The main drivers will remain active export demand and limited grain supply on the part of producers.